Well Pitt has really turned around their season looking like their defense is real and Todd Graham's fast paced offense is starting to click, but now they go on the road to face a Rutgers team that is coming in under the radar. Rutgers is 18-7 ATS in their last 26 as a dog 3.5 -10 points and they look to revenge last year's 21-41 loss on the road. Rutgers always covers spreads as big dogs because they play defense, and particularly they play good run defense as they are ranked 12th in the nation and that's the strength of this Pitt team behind Ray Graham. But hold up as Pitt will be without two guards in this game that could hurt because if Rutgers can stop the run I think they win this game out right and that's a real possibility on Saturday.
Rutgers is #1 int he Big East in sacks, scoring defense and turnover margin. Their only loss was on the road to a tough North Carolina team 22-24. Pitt's OL is last in the nation sacks allowed and that should be a huge edge if Rutgers can stop the run first. Pitt has been great in the red zone 20 of 21 with 16 of those 20 being TD's, but Rugers defense has only allowed 10 possessions int he red zone all year and 4 were TD's. I think they'll limit the trips for Pitt in the red zone in this game. People are looking past Rutgers defense and that could benefit us big time.
Pittsburgh's struggles on defense are in the pass defense. Despite what anyone says I never bought into South Florida and their pass offense. Nobody is buying into Rutgers pass offense but they have a WR in Mohammed Sanu who is averaging 10.8 receptions a game and is one of the better players in the nation that nobody is talking about. Another sleeper is the WR that led the Big East in yards per catch and TD's for a WR in Mark Harrisson. He's been quiet early this year mainly because Rutgers has been unable to provide the protection, but at home and with Pitt on the road where they've played just once I bet he finds the end zone. Lastly there is a huge advantage when Pitt let go Dave Wannstedt Rutgers picked up three coaches in offensive coordinator Cignetti, TE and secondary coach so that should be an edge .
